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Poll puts Labour on course to lose Senedd seats in 2021 election

Prof Roger Awan-Scully has crunched the polling numbers and projects the loss of five Senedd seats for Labour, with the Conservatives the main beneficiaries.

Labour are projected to lose seats at the next Welsh assembly election, an exclusive poll for ITV Wales has found.

As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the European Union, the poll found Welsh voters are rewarding the man who has led them to this point - Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

His Conservative Party are at historic levels of support in Wales, and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election.

The Conservative Party are at historic levels of support in Wales Credit: PA Images

The poll, asked about voting intentions for both Westminster and the National Assembly. For the first time, in light of the recent law that has given 16 and 17 year olds the right to vote in devolved elections in Wales, the sample included a representative number from that age group.

  • Conservatives: 41% (+4)
  • Labour: 36% (-4)
  • Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)
  • Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)
  • Brexit Party: 3% (-2)
  • Greens: 2% (+1)
  • Others: 1 (no change)

Professor Roger Awan-Scully of Cardiff University said, "After the strong Conservative performance in December, and the further boost they had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll."

Political Editor Adrian Masters and Professor Awan-Scully go over the poll findings in this video below:

These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales.

Their 41% equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century.

Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election.

Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.

– Prof Roger Awan-Scully, Cardiff University
Sarah Atherton won Wrexham from Labour during the general election
  • What might such support levels for the parties mean in terms of parliamentary seats?

Using the standard method of projecting the swings since the last general election indicated by this poll, gives the following outcome in terms of seats - with projected changes from the December result in brackets.

  • Labour: 18 (-4)
  • Conservatives: 18 (+4)
  • Plaid Cymru: 4 (no change)

The poll projects the Conservative to retain all six seats they gained from Labour at the general election, and on top of that to gain four more ones - Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West.

People were also asked once again about voting intentions for both the constituency and the regional ballots in a devolved election.

The poll projects Labour to lose eight seats to the Conservatives at the next assembly election Credit: PA Images

Here are the figures with shifts in support since the last December poll in brackets:

  • Conservatives: 35% (+4)
  • Labour: 33% (no change)
  • Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)
  • Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)
  • Brexit Party: 4% (-3)
  • Greens: 3% (no change)
  • Others: 1% (no change)

These numbers, which include figures for 16 and 17 year old voters, something that marginally reduces the Conservative lead, show that the current post-election boost to Conservative fortunes is not just confined to Westminster. The 35% support reported for the Conservatives is actually their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election.

If we again assume uniform national swings since the last National Assembly election our new Barometer poll projects the Tories to gain eight constituency seats from Labour: Vale of Glamorgan, Vale of Clwyd, Gower,Wrexham, Cardiff North, Clwyd South, Newport West, and Delyn.

– Prof Roger Awan-Scully, Cardiff University

"Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour have always much been the largest party in the chamber", Professor Awan-Scully said.

Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics.

The poll suggests these are good times to be a Welsh Conservative. Indeed, those times have never been better. On all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted."

The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,037 Welsh adults (including a small number of respondents aged 16 and 17) and was carried out by YouGov from 20 to 26 January 2020.