Latest Welsh Barometer Poll

The latest Welsh Barometer opinion poll has been published. The exclusive poll for ITV Cymru Wales is the first poll of Welsh voters of the Westminster election campaign.

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Miliband and Wood least disliked leaders

Our poll also asked voters to rate how much they liked -or disliked- the leaders heading their parties UK and Welsh election campaigns. When the likes and disliked were averaged out, no-one achieved even 50% likeability. Ed Miliband and Leanne Wood were the two most popular -or more accurately, the least disliked.

Here's how the leaders of the Welsh election campaigns rated:

  • Leanne Wood (Plaid Cymru): 47%
  • Kirsty Williams (Liberal Democrat): 41%
  • Stephen Crabb (Conservative) 37%
  • Owen Smith (Labour): 36%
  • Pippa Bartolotti (Green): 35%
  • Nathan Gill (UKIP): 30%

And the UK leaders:

  • Ed Miliband (Labour): 47%
  • David Cameron (Conservative): 40%
  • Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrat): 40%
  • Natalie Bennett (Green): 39%
  • Nigel Farage (UKIP): 35%


Poll shows Welsh Labour lead still 14%

YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, 4-8 May. Sample: 1,202 Credit: ITV Cymru Wales

The final poll of Welsh voters before tomorrow's election shows Labour maintaining their lead over the Conservatives in Wales, with Plaid Cymru edging just ahead of UKIP. Liberal Democrat support is slightly up and the Greens are down, compared with the last poll three weeks ago.

The exclusive poll for ITV Cymru Wales puts Labour on 39%, the Conservatives on 25, Plaid Cymru on 13, Ukip on 12 and the Liberal Democrats on 8%. The results show a slight increase in support for Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats over the last two weeks, with the other main parties each down 1%.

Here's the full result for Westminster voting intention from YouGov's Welsh Barometer Poll for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University:

  • Labour 39% (-1%)
  • Conservative 25% (-1%)
  • Plaid Cymru 13% (+1%)
  • UKIP 12% (-1%)
  • Liberal Democrats 8% (+2%)
  • Greens 2% (-2%)

Figures in brackets show the change since the last Barometer Poll, 13-15 April

Conservatives taking 'nothing for granted' after poll

Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb has welcomed the latest Welsh Barometer poll results as 'encouraging' for the Conservatives.

This poll is encouraging and shows that our support hasn't dropped since 2010. We are getting good feedback on the doorstep and will continue to fight in every corner of Wales.

We are taking nothing for granted and need to continue to make sure that voters know the only party who can secure a strong and growing economy for Wales is the Welsh Conservatives."

– Stephen Crabb

Plaid Cymru: Poll shows 'support is rising'

Plaid Cymru has welcomed the findings of our latest Welsh barometer poll, even though the party only saw a small increase despite a high profile in the UK media for leader Leanne Wood. Plaid's election co-ordinator, Lord Wigley said:

This poll shows that support for Plaid Cymru is on the rise. More and more people are warming to Leanne Wood and Plaid Cymru’s positive messages as they hear what we have to say about ending austerity and Tory rule. As well as the seats we already hold, we are seeing our support increase in places like Ynys Mon, Llanelli and Ceredigion. We remain focussed on delivering our best ever result at Westminster and the best possible deal for Wales.

– Dafydd Wigley


  1. Nick Powell

Poll shows Labour maintaining lead in Wales

The latest Welsh opinion poll shows Labour maintaining its lead in Wales. For the first time, the results of the Welsh Barometer Poll have been weighted to reflect how likely people say they are to vote.

  • Labour 40%
  • Conservative 26%
  • UKIP 13%
  • Plaid Cymru 12%
  • Liberal Democrats 6%
  • Green 4%

The figures show little change since the last two Welsh polls, which were both carried out just before the televised debate by party leaders.

  • YouGov polled 1,143 Welsh adults for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, 13-15 April 2015.
  1. Nick Powell

Poll puts health as voters' greatest concern

People were asked to name the most important issues facing the country Credit: ITV Cymru Wales

Welsh voters seem in no doubt that health the is the most important political issue at the moment, according to a YouGov poll for ITV Cymru Wales. Concerns about the NHS are likely to have a big impact on how people vote in the Westminster election, although it's the responsibility of the Welsh Government.

People were asked to name the most important issues facing the country. Here's their top four:

  • Health 52%
  • Immigration & Asylum 49%
  • The Economy 46%
  • Welfare benefits 27%

Next, they were asked what were the most important issues facing them and their families, producing a rather different top four concerns:

  • Health 47%
  • The Economy 39%
  • Pensions 27%
  • Welfare benefits 20%

Immigration came sixth on 18%, just behind tax on 19%. In general, supporters of all parties broadly agreed about the issues facing the country and themselves. The notable exception was UKIP supporters. 85% of them listed immigration as an issue for the country, more than twice as many as picked any other issue.

50% of UKIP voters also saw immigration as an issue for themselves and their families, again making it their main concern.

  • People could pick up to three issues in response to each question.
  • Poll for ITV Cymru Wales and the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University.
  • YouGov poll 24-27 March. Sample of 1189 Welsh adults.
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