The first data from the latest Wales Barometer opinion poll shows UKIP now in second place for the European Election in May. A big increase in the party's support since the last poll in December means it has overtaken the Conservatives. Labour are still well ahead.
- Labour 39% (41% in December)
- UKIP 18% (13% in December)
- Conservatives 17% (20% in December)
- Plaid Cymru 12% (13% in December)
- Liberal Democrats 7% (9% in December)
- Others 7% (4% in December)
Wales has four seats in the European Parliament. At the last election, in 2009, UKIP won a Welsh seat for the first time, with 13% support. The Conservatives, with 21%, Labour on 20% and Plaid Cymru on 19%. each also won a single seat.
If the latest opinion poll figures are repeated on election day, Labour would win the first two seats, UKIP the third seat and the Conservatives the fourth. Plaid Cymru would be without an MEP for the first time since the present voting system was introduced in 1999.
Prof Roger Scully gives his expert analysis of opinion poll findings on tonight's Y Byd ar Bedwar about the choices facing Welsh councils.
Prof Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre gives his expert analysis of how Wales would vote in different elections.