The first results from the latest Wales Barometer Poll have just been published on Sharp End. They show how people plan to vote in the Westminster election and indicate that both Labour and Conservatives have managed a modest increase in support since the last poll in January.
- Labour 39% (+2%)
- Conservative 25% (+2%)
- UKIP 14% (-2%)
- Plaid Cymru 10% (no change)
- Green 6% (-2%)
- Lib Dems 5% (-1%)
- Others 1% (no change)
Expert analysis by Prof Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre at Cardiff University suggests that Labour would win two additional seats -Cardiff North from the Conservatives and Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats- if there was an even swing across Wales. The Conservatives would take Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats. No other seats would change hands.
YouGov polled 1,279 Welsh voters for ITV Wales and Cardiff University between March 5 and 9. Voting intentions for the 2016 Assembly election will be published on Tuesday morning.
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