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David Wood blog: How will our West Country MPs react to the Brexit vote?

It's fair to say at from 7pm on Tuesday night Theresa May faces her largest challenge since becoming Prime Minster - the vote on her Brexit deal.

Despite making promises on housing healthcare and social injustices, Mrs May knows that she will be remembered for Brexit. She only became Prime Minister because David Cameron quit after the Brexit referendum, and therefore the vote is the most significant moment so far in our exit from the EU.

Anti-Brexit and Pro-Brexit protesters fly flags outside the Houses of Parliament ahead of the vote on the Prime Minister's Brexit deal. Credit: Yui Mok/PA

The odds are stacked against Mrs May's deal, in the West Country the seven Labour and one Liberal Democrat MPs will all vote against the deal, but so too are at least 15 Conservatives.

Theresa May has spent a lot of the past few days and weeks trying to convince them, but it hasn't really worked. Many believe that the deal isn't the Brexit they campaigned for.

With the House of Commons completely divided over how the react to Brexit the only majority in there is against leaving the EU without a deal - that's why Theresa May keeps saying that voting down her deal risks no Brexit.

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Two Conservative West Country MPs, Andrew Murrison (South West Wiltshire) and Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (The Cotswolds) both voted to leave the EU, and this week have said they will back Theresa May's Brexit deal because they believe that it means remaining in the EU will be avoided.

In all just over half of the West Country's 50 MPs plan to vote with Theresa May, but quite simply that isn't enough.

Many of those voting against it have concerns about the rules to avoid having a 'hard border' between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland if a trade deal isn't reached with the EU in the next two years.

Theresa May has been given a number of assurances from the EU, but as they're not legal assurances they haven't been good enough to convince those MPs to change their minds.

Something to look out for over the next day are a few amendments to the bill going through Parliament put forward by some of our MPs.

Alex Chalk (Cheltenham), Sir Hugo Swire (East Devon) and Andrew Murrison (South West Wiltshire) have all tabled amendments that try and bring together a consensus about how MPs want Theresa May's deal to be changed.

Protestors outside the Houses of Parliament. Credit: Victoria Jones/PA

Should Mrs May lost the vote on her deal she is likely to give a statement on what she plans to do next, either straight after the vote or on Wednesday lunchtime.

Many MPs are looking to what she says before they decide what they will push for, but already one minister has told me that if the vote is lost they will publicly say they won't be able to vote for a no deal Brexit - which means if Theresa May suggests we leave the EU without a deal she will have at least one ministerial resignation on her hands.

Theresa May has previously said that if the vote is lost the UK is in 'unchartered territory', many believe she has a plan B, but time is running out. The vote on her deal is likely to be the most significant vote any of our MPs have taken part in.