German election: Who are the key players and what is at stake?

Words by ITV News Deputy Content Editor Sophia Ankel

Germany is heading to the polls on Sunday, February 23, after Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition government collapsed late last year.

The snap election comes at a time of heightened political uncertainty, with deep divisions over the country's economic future, immigration policies, and its role on the global stage.

And as the country's far-right party, the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), is making historic gains, the stakes couldn't be higher for Germany’s future leadership.

So who are the key players in this election and why is it so important? ITV News explains.

What caused Germany's snap election?

Germany's so-called traffic-light coalition was formed after the 2021 federal elections.

It was named after the individual red, yellow and green colours of its three parties - Scholz's centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), the economically liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the environmentalist Green Party.

But the coalition fell apart in November last year when Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired Finance Minister Christian Lindner - the leader of the FDP - following disagreements over how to revive Germany's shrinking economy.

Shortly after, a snap election was called and a date was set.

What parties are running?

There will be seven major parties for which Germans will vote. Four of the seven have made official announcements about their Kanzlerkandidaten, or candidates for chancellor.

The party that is projected to secure the highest number of seats in parliament is the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz.

Merz, 69, used to work closely with Angela Merkel, who led the party for 16 years, becoming the second longest serving chancellor in Germany's history.

But Merz is known for having shifted the CDU more to the right in recent years, with a tougher stance on migration, and a strong economic mind.

Barring a major and unexpected reversal in the polls, Merz is highly likely to be Germany’s new chancellor.

Another party predicted to do well is the far-right AfD, led by 46-year-old Alice Weidel, an ex-Goldman Sachs analyst.

Weidel has backed the mass deportation of migrants, embracing the highly controversial term "remigration", and wants to end sanctions on Russia.

She enjoys the support of Elon Musk, who last year defended some of her views, saying she could not be classed as a right-wing extremist as she "has a same-sex partner from Sri Lanka".

Fresh from last September's success in regional elections in Thuringia, when it became the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War II, the AfD is now polling well at a national level.

However, it is unlikely the group would be able to govern because other parties have refused to align themselves with the far-right, despite Germany’s parliamentary system traditionally producing coalitions.

Every party in Germany's Bundestag has declared they will not work with the AfD, in a concept called the Feuerwand - the "firewall".

Scholz, of the SPD, has been chancellor for over three years, leading the coalition that ultimately collapsed.

His tenure faced early challenges, particularly as Germany’s economy was hit hard by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

His party is trying to woo voters with a classic social democratic platform of stable pensions, financial help for families and the middle class, and affordable climate change policies.

The SPD has historically aligned with conservative factions, and while Scholz has expressed a lack of trust in Merz, the two parties remain potential partners.

The Green Party should also be considered one to watch.

It is unlikely to gather enough votes to be the biggest party, but nonetheless could play an important role in the formation of the next government.

The Greens will be led by Robert Habeck, currently the nation’s Minister for Economic Affairs.

The three other major parties will be the Free Democrats; the BSW, a left-wing socialist group named after its leader, Sahra Wagenknecht; and lastly Die Linke, a left-wing political party.

All three have yet to officially announce their candidates.

What coalition is most likely?

It is very unlikely that any party will have a majority in the Bundestag, so the parties and German voters will already be thinking about what coalitions might be possible.

The CDU and SPD have served in Bundestag coalitions before, and coalitions featuring the Greens or FDP are not unusual.

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What are the key issues in this election? 

When asked about the most important problems that politicians should tackle after the election, 37% of Germans named immigration, ahead of the state of the economy, according to a survey from November 2024.

Around one in seven said they are concerned about foreign affairs, 13% mention environmental and climate protection, and 11% cite other social problems.

• Immigration

Immigration will be critical in this election as parties look to lure votes away from the surging AfD, which has made it a core issue.

Recent incidents, including a suspected car attack in Munich and a terrorist attack at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, have intensified debates on immigration policies and national security.

Scholz recently reintroduced checks on borders with neighbouring European nations in recent months, a move many saw as him trying to curry favour with voters who may be turning towards the AfD.

• Economy

The economy is expected to play a central role in the election, particularly given its sluggish performance under Scholz.

There are particular concerns over infrastructure investment and public services.

• Energy Policy

The surge in energy costs, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has strained households and businesses alike, leading to widespread public concern.

Germany, which has historically relied on Russian gas, has been forced to seek alternative energy sources, raising questions about the country’s energy security and sustainability.

Candidates are under pressure to offer clear solutions for stabilizing prices while transitioning to greener energy alternatives.

• Defense

Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine has heightened fears about regional stability, pushing Germany to reassess its military readiness and NATO commitments.

The Zeitenwende policy, announced by Scholz in 2022, promised a stronger Bundeswehr, but progress has been slow, with issues like underfunding, logistical problems, and procurement delays drawing criticism.

Debates over Germany’s role in European defense, support for Ukraine, and NATO's 2% GDP defense spending target have become key election issues.

What to know about the far-right AfD

Polls show that the far-right, anti-immigrant AfD will likely emerge from the elections as the strongest opposition party.

Founded in 2013, the party has enjoyed success in recent years with a large part of east Germany voting in its favour.

The party's leader, Alice Weidel, said she would put the country’s ailing economy on track again, turn back the Germany’s climate-friendly energy transition and cut down harshly on immigration.

AfD has also called for the immediate lifting of sanctions against Russia and opposes weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

It wants Germany to reintroduce a national currency and for the European Union to be turned into a looser “association of European nations,” though it isn’t explicitly advocating leaving the 27-nation bloc.

The party also has the backing of Musk, who earlier this year addressed an AfD rally in Frankfurt remotely. His open support has caused an uproar in Germany.

The main demographic voting for the AfD is young people.

In the eastern state of Thuringa, almost one in three young people voted for the far-right party during the European elections in June 2024.

Weidel is known for slick talking and populist policies, particularly on migration. She has become increasingly popular with young voters on TikTok.

Videos by the AfD reach three times more young people than videos of all other German parties combined.

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