Path to coalition unclear as Germany takes decisive shift to the right

The snap election comes at a time of heightened political uncertainty, with deep divisions over the country's economic future and immigration policies, ITV News' Europe Editor James Mates reports

Germany took a decisive shift to the right on Sunday, with the centre-right CDU clear winners and the far-right AfD doubling its share of the vote. But despite the fears that no coalition may be possible, this morning it does look as if there will be a stable and coherent government in Berlin for the next few years.

Friedrich Merz will be the new chancellor, almost certainly leading what the Germans call a ‘Grand Coalition’ of the two big parties of the centre.

The AfD, despite winning more than one in five German votes, will not be allowed anywhere near the government. Every other party promised before the poll that they would not go into coalition with them – the so-called ‘firewall – and all look likely to stick to it.

To put this in British terms it is as if Reform, as a party on the right, had done so well that neither Labour nor the Tories could muster a majority, and ended up having to form a coalition with each other. Very strange to British eyes, but not so unusual in Germany.

Now that all the votes have been counted the big question for Europe is how quickly can Herr Merz take over.

While coalition talks are underway, outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholtz will remain in charge, despite a humiliating night for his Social Democrats. But he will be the lamest of lame ducks.

The failure of two smaller parties, one each of left and right, to make it past the 5% threshold and thus get seats in Parliament has simplified matters. It means that a majority can be formed with just two parties rather than three or even four, making talks on a new government much simpler.

But still, the process is expected to take weeks rather than days, and all the while politics in Donald Trump’s world is moving at terrifying speed. Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer will be in Washington this week trying to get Trump to take some notice of Europe; they would dearly love to have had a German voice, if not a German presence, to add more weight.

But even before taking office, Merz is making clear that a decisive break with Washington may be imminent, and that he will drive Europe into doing what is needed in this dangerous new world.

In a TV interview last night he said “it is an absolute priority that we strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we achieve independence from the US, step by step”. And this is from a man who has been an Atlanticist and backer of NATO all his political life.

On Ukraine too he distanced himself decisively from Trump. “Victory means restoring territorial integrity” he said, which will be music to the ears of Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion.

Merz is known to have been very angry at the interference of Elon Musk and JD Vance in the campaign, something he considers every bit as bad as any interference coming from Moscow.

It is likely to be a few weeks before he takes his seat at Europe’s top table, but when he does, expect a decisive difference from his slightly underwhelming predecessor, both in style and substance.

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