What could Trump's 'crippling' halt of military aid mean for Ukraine?
Words by ITV News Producer Jamel Smith
US President Donald Trump has suspended shipments of military aid to Ukraine following rising tensions with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the past few weeks.
American officials said the pause relates to all military equipment not yet delivered to Ukraine and is a response to what Trump sees as Zelenskyy's recent missteps.
The pause will remain until Trump believes Zelenskyy is committed to peace talks, effectively pressuring Ukraine into negotiations, according to a US official.
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the US has delivered $65.9 billion (£51.8 billion) in military aid, with the previous Joe Biden administration describing it as a reaffirmation of America’s "unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity".
Following Friday's heated exchange, where President Trump accused Zelenskyy of “gambling with World War Three,” America's stance has clearly shifted.
So, how could the pause in military aid affect Ukraine's war effort?
Impact could be ‘crippling’
Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a foreign policy think tank, and a close observer of the war, said: "The impact is going to be big. I would call it crippling."
Cancian estimated that Ukraine would begin feeling the effects of the pause in US aid within two to four months, although support from European countries would help Kyiv continue the fight for the time being.
“That’s why they don’t fall off a cliff, but when your supplies get cut in half, eventually that shows up on the front lines,” Cancian said.
“Their front lines would continue to buckle and eventually they would break and Ukraine would have to accept an adverse – even catastrophic – peace settlement.”
More pauses to come?
Cancian warned that the Trump administration has more forms of aid to Ukraine that could be paused or cancelled altogether, including intelligence sharing and the training of Ukrainian forces.
“There might be a way out of this, but it’s going to be extremely humiliating for Zelenskyy,” Cancian said.
What military aid has the US already provided to Ukraine?
Air defence
Russia’s vast access to aerial weapons, such as drones and missiles, has led to widespread destruction and the deaths of thousands of Ukrainians.
In response, the US has supplied Ukraine with advanced air defence systems, including 12 National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems and medium-range HAWK systems.
To enhance their effectiveness, the US has also provided 21 air surveillance radars and equipment to integrate Western launchers and missiles into Ukraine’s defence systems.
Missiles and artillery
The US has supplied Ukraine with over 40 rocket systems mounted on light armoured vehicles, more than three million 155mm artillery rounds, and over 700,000 mortar rounds, aiming to equip Ukraine with the tools to retaliate against Russian attacks.
America has also sent more than 10,000 Javelins, anti-tank missiles that became symbols of Ukraine's resistance early in the war.
Over 120,000 other anti-vehicle weapons and 10,000 Tow anti-tank missiles were also provided.
Trucks, tanks and choppers
To cover the vast terrain, Washington sent Ukraine 20 Soviet-designed Mi-17 military helicopters and various models of drones.
This came despite the US government’s refusal to provide combat aircraft to Kyiv.
After delays, the US delivered 31 Abrams tanks, the most advanced US heavy tanks, starting in January 2023, along with 45 Soviet-designed T-72B tanks.
The package also included 300 Bradley fighting vehicles, 1,300 armoured personnel carriers, over 5,000 Humvee military vehicles, and 300 armoured ambulances.
Additionally, the US supplied more than 100 patrol boats, coastal defence systems, Claymore mines, satellite communication systems, night vision goggles, and over 100,000 sets of body armour.
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What military aid has the UK sent to Ukraine?
The UK has provided £7.8 billion in military aid since 2022 and is expected to send an additional £4.5 billion in support in 2025. The UK has supplied 30,000 attack and surveillance drones, 650 lightweight missiles, and a newly developed air defence system called Gravehawk. Additionally, British troops have trained more than 51,000 Ukrainian personnel in the UK as part of Operation Interflex.
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