UN issues global warning ahead of 'exceptional El Niño weather pattern'

A "supersized" El Niño is expected to bring a "danger zone of extreme weather" to the world, the head of the UN has warned.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) released the urgent warning as part of its update that tracks the natural weather phenomenon, showing it could be the strongest in more than 70 years and last until at least February 2027.

El Niño develops every few years in the Pacific Ocean. Under normal conditions, strong trade winds push warm surface waters towards Asia.

But during an El Niño event, those winds weaken, allowing warm water to spread back towards South America.

That releases more heat into the atmosphere, disrupting weather patterns around the world.

El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average

The last El Niño, three years ago, coincided with a series of extreme weather events. In the Amazon rainforest, a record 44 million acres burned in devastating wildfires.

"El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up," UN head António Guterres said.

“El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.

“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies.”

The WMO said it was launching the biggest mobilisation of meteorological organisations in its 50-year history in response to the report.

It aims to produce the most accurate forecasting possible to give governments and emergency response organisations the chance to prepare for any major weather event.

Last month, the UK's Met Office warned the world is “in for one hell of a ride” amid the "unprecedented" El Niño event.

It creates a heightened risk of drought in the tropics, southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe – including the UK – is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions in the coming autumn and early winter, the forecaster said.

Prof Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical hazards, University College London, said at the time the Met Office and other scientific forecasts “suggest that the world is in for one hell of a ride”.

“The astonishing and unprecedented amount of heat building across the eastern Pacific Ocean is all but certain to make this the most powerful El Nino in living memory – possibly even the biggest in several centuries,” he said.

He added that the addition of so much heat into the atmosphere from the heated ocean could see temperatures reach or even exceed 1.7C above pre-industrial levels.

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