Reform rise quells Labour and Tory disquiet ahead of local elections in the South

“Reform are not a right wing party!” That was the bold attack line deployed by Conservative shadow cabinet minister, Mims Davies.

The East Grinstead and Uckfield MP said they were “capitalist, socialist or populist”, and suggested Nigel Farage and his colleagues should “pick a lane”.

Her punchy retort to my question about how much of a threat the new turquoise tribe are posing in the South of England was typical of members of the established parties over the past fortnight. 

From the Bournemouth beachfront, to the banks of the Mersey, and onto the red-bricked hotels of Manchester city centre: the common theme of the party conferences has been unexpected unity, in the face of a common political enemy. 

The Liberal Democrats set the tone with their Dorset jamboree, which included free Lego characters of the Reform UK leader in packets bearing the words ‘Plastic Patriot’.

Lib Dem leader, Sir Ed Davey, told me Reform were trying to use the issue of immigration “to divide communities” and that they “don’t have any real practical answers”. In contrast, Sir Ed argued that his party was “coming forward with practical ways to meet people’s concerns”.

The Lib Dem leader believes many local election contests in May 2026 will be a “two-way fight” between the Lib Dems and Reform UK. The party’s Southern MPs are well aware of the shockwaves Reform’s rise is sending through local politics in the region. 

“We have to do more”, was the blunt assessment of Horsham MP John Milne. He suggested the Lib Dems needed to “find good arguments to the challenges [Reform] are throwing up”.

Surrey Heath MP, Al Pinkerton, believed his party needed to “be a bit louder, a bit bolder, even a bit more crass” in order to cut through to the public in a multi-party environment.

The Lib Dems are trying to establish themselves as the "bulwark against Reform locally”, according to Tunbridge Wells MP Mike Martin, who predicted it would become a “recurring theme” over the next year.

The Lib Dem conference included overt displays of patriotism, with supporters waving Union flags in the main hall. Scenes mirrored days later when Labour gathered for their conference in Liverpool. 

• Sir Keir Starmer spoke to ITV News Meridian on 25 September ahead of Labour's annual conference

Sir Keir Starmer told me he "understood people’s concerns” about small boat crossings to the Kent coast and that the issue was a “serious problem which requires serious responses”.

The Prime Minister argued that the government had “got to get these numbers down” and that they had “proved the concept” of returning failed asylum seekers to France under a recent returns agreement.

Sir Keir openly attacked the Reform UK leader in his conference speech, accusing Mr Farage of being a “snake oil salesman” who “doesn’t believe in Britain”. 

Worthing West MP Beccy Cooper said that she wasn’t “terribly interested in [Nigel Farage's] toddler tantrums” and more focussed on “what we can do for people”.

Home Office minister Mike Tapp, who is MP for Dover and Deal, said Labour’s focus on flag-waving at their conference wasn’t in response to Reform, who he accused of “division and cynicism".

Rumours of a direct challenge on Sir Keir Starmer’s authority from Andy Burnham never materialised, despite many regarding him as the most likely replacement leader.

The same was true in Manchester, a few days later, when talk of Robert Jenrick breaking cover to unseat Kemi Badenoch fizzled out, with an expected high-profile defection to Reform also conspicuous by its absence.

A handful of local Tory councillors did switch sides but there was a sense of relief amongst the remaining activists from our region that that was the extent of the open disloyalty.

When I asked the Conservative leader whether she would lead her party into the next general election, Ms Badenoch replied: “Of course I will.”

• Kemi Badenoch spoke to ITV News Meridian on 2 October ahead of Conservative conference

Tory MPs from the South were “walking a little bit taller” after watching their leader’s economy-focussed keynote speech, according to the Arundel and South Downs MP.

Andrew Griffith, who is also the Shadow Business Secretary, said that the pledge to abolish stamp duty represented “a return to Conservative principles” some of which “we weren’t confident enough to pursue in government”.

Katie Lam, who is being talked of as a potential future party leader, told me while it “was very nice when people notice and appreciate what you’re doing” she had “no interest in getting involved” in “internal posturing”.

The Weald of Kent MP added: “Kemi is fantastic and it is our job to support her.”

That message of unity reflects a realisation amongst many Tory and Labour MPs that a divisive leadership election would likely play into Reform’s hands. 

They have clearly concluded that, for now, the wiser move is to turn their attention to regrouping, readying their attack lines and refining their own policy platform in response to Mr Farage. 

With the man from Kent’s party topping national opinion polls for several months, the next major electoral test will be in May 2026, when voters across much of the South will vote in local elections. 

As well as council polls due in Hampshire, Surrey, West Sussex, East Sussex and Essex, there will also be elections for new mayors in ‘Hampshire and the Solent’ and ‘Sussex and Brighton’.

If Reform builds on its success in the 2025 local elections, questions about the leadership of Labour and the Conservatives will undoubtedly resurface.

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