By Elisa Menendez, Content Producer
Rishi Sunak looks set to weaken a number of key climate targets in a bid to win voters, while he insists the measures will ensure a 'more proportionate way' of reaching net zero.
Britain's aim is to achieve net zero emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 and with increasing warnings about the severity of the climate crisis, all eyes are firmly set on the UK’s next steps to reach its goal.
The law for the net zero target was passed in June 2019 and Britain was the first major economy in the world to legally set such a goal - a move which requires extensive policy change.
The UK was also one of nearly 200 nations to sign the historic Paris Agreement in 2015, pledging to help towards the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2C but preferably 1.5C.
But the prime minister is likely to weaken some of his policies as many voters struggle with the cost of living crisis and are concerned about how much green commitments could cost.
ITV News understands he could delay the ban on new petrol and diesel car sales by five years, to 2035, while he could also delay the phase out of gas boilers and scrap home insultation targets.
What does net zero mean?
A country reaches net zero when the amount of greenhouse gases emitted is the same as that taken out from the atmosphere, a process also known as "carbon neutrality".
The term "gross zero" is also heard a lot, which would mean reducing all carbon emissions to zero, but experts say this is not a realistic target.
Britain's net zero target is one of the most ambitious across the globe and it is one the government has previously said it hopes to achieve while simultaneously growing the economy.
However, the economic fallout of the war in the Ukraine has made this ambition more difficult, with Rishi Sunak claiming and his Chancellor Jeremy Hunt arguing actions towards net zero need to be "proportionate, pragmatic" and done in a way that "carries families with us who are finding life extremely difficult at the moment".
What is the importance of net zero?
Climate change has been triggered by an excess of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, in the atmosphere. The gases trap the heat from the sun and warm up the planet.
Working towards net zero is crucial because it is widely considered the best way to tackle climate change by reducing global warming.
Sam Fankhauser, professor of climate economics and policy at the University of Oxford, told ITV News: "If you want to curtail temperature rises, you do need that net zero balance at some point."
The past eight years were the warmest on record globally, according to six leading international temperature datasets consolidated by the World Meteorological Organization.
An increase of 1.15C may not sound like much, but we are already starting to see the devastating effects of global warming, with rising sea levels, animal species going extinct and more extreme weather conditions leading to floods, droughts, hurricanes and typhoons.
As the Earth’s temperature continues to increase, these effects will only worsen, putting humans and the Earth’s rich biodiversity at severe risk.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said the Paris Climate pledge of keeping global temperatures well below 2C will be broken this century unless all countries work quickly to make huge carbon emission cuts - and this is where net zero targets step in.
How is net zero achieved and how has the UK said it wants to achieve it?
There are two main ways of reaching net zero - reducing existing emissions and actively removing greenhouse gases.
According to Professor Fankhauser, who is also a research director at Oxford Net Zero, there are six “steps” to reducing emissions. They are:
“Once you’ve cleaned up electricity, you can decarbonise other industries,” he said, adding that this can then be used for electric cars, transport, in buildings and replacing boilers with heat pumps.
He said this has started to happen in the UK and worldwide, but a lot of investment is still needed “so we are not out of the woods, but we are kind of getting there”.
Transport is the biggest source of emissions in the UK. While more eco-friendly solutions like electric cars are becoming more popular, transport is not yet at the level of renewable energy in terms of the cost and uptake, he said, “but we are close”.
"We kind of know the technological solutions we need - and elsewhere in Europe they work - in Switzerland where I grew up and in Scandinavia, heat pumps are the norm,” said Professor Fankhauser.
“But in the UK, it turns out people don't like them - they like boilers, so we have the behavioural problem of acceptability."
He also said the government should be putting heat pumps into all new builds - as a building has to be prepared for one - but they are not.
“It's completely daft to build those houses and not make them zero carbon because ten years down the line you'll have to refurbish the house,” he added.
Technological solutions are starting to emerge to make energy-intensive industries zero carbon, said the expert.
But there is a "long way" to go until they can be introduced, as they still need to be proven at a commercial level and then costs must be brought down.
The professor believes addressing the issues around agricultural emissions released via cows and fertilisers, for example, may mostly come down to citizens in the long-term.
"We haven't really tackled issues around agriculture - part of the solution will probably have to be a behavioural change much more than the other industries,” said Professor Fankhauser.
"We might ask people to change their eating habits and that's going to be controversial, but it's happening.
“If you look at your average supermarket, the shelves with vegan and vegetarian food are much more prominent than they were a couple of years ago."
Like energy-intensive industries, the expert said technological solutions are emerging to make planes more green, but they are “not there yet”.
The professor said if all the above six steps are achieved, emissions will be reduced quickly, but not fast enough.
So, measures must be taken to remove greenhouse gases, such as planting trees, burning biomass and using technology like carbon capture and storage (CCS).
How could measures to reach net zero affect Britons’ everyday lives?
The job landscape will perhaps undergo the biggest change, as the UK aims to continue to move away from carbon-led industries and invest in new long-term green roles.
Transport is the largest source of CO2 emissions across the country, meaning many will be encouraged to cut out car travel altogether when possible, or make the shift from fuel to electric vehicles.
"With electric cars, I think 15 years down the line we will look back and say were we really driving something like this? It will be in the same way that you look at the brick phones in the 90s,” added the professor.
Gas home heating - which warms up 86% of UK households - will likely be gradually phased out, replacing fossil fuel-powered boilers with eco-friendly heat pumps.
What has been done to make sure the UK is on track with its target?
In 2008, the Climate Change Act committed the UK to drive down carbon emissions by 80% - relative to 1990 levels - by 2050. In 2019, this was amended to achieve 100% net zero by the same year.
In April 2021, the government ramped up its goal and pledged to reduce emissions by 78% by 2035.
This would keep the UK in line with the commitments it made when it signed up to the Paris Agreement to keep global warming under 2C, with hopes of setting a global example to persuade other countries to commit more.
The Climate Change Act requires governments to set legally binding Carbon Budgets, which act as stepping stones to meet the 2050 target.
They are designed to keep Britain on track by setting five-year caps on greenhouse emissions and map out the best financial route to achieve them.
The budgets are set 12 years in advance so policy makers, businesses and members of the public have enough time to prepare.
The sixth Carbon Budget commits the government to limit emissions over a five-year period from 2033 to 2037. If achieved, this would mean the UK would be more than three quarters of the way to reaching net zero by 2050.
Is the UK on track to meet the 2050 target?
No. According to the independent Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK met the first and second Carbon Budgets and is on track to outperform the third.
But it is currently not set to meet the fourth, fifth or sixth budgets. The CCC said in order to make its 2050 goal, governments must “introduce more challenging measures”.
The government's own analysis in 2021 showed it is set to meet just 92% of the emissions cuts required and, without further changes, the target will be missed.
Professor Fankhauser said he is positive good progress is being made with transport, clean electricity, and the decarbonisation of the power sector but “everything else is effectively still in the balance."
"We will be net zero, whether its 2050, 2060 or even 2070 - that's the question,” he said.
"The net zero train has left the station, but it's whether it's going at the right speed for the climate."
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